Given the number of apocalyptic films based on deadly viruses, plus plenty of real life warm up acts (Spanish flu, Avian flu, etc.), it’s remarkable how caught off guard we were when Covid-19 hit. In many ways, those of us with office-based jobs are lucky that the virus came along after cloud productivity tools gained widespread adoption. Just imagine if we were going through this in the 1970s or 80s, without the benefit of video conferencing, slack or even email? Not to mention home food delivery. Things could be worse…

We’re a long way from being out of the woods, but I think the shape of things to come is coming into focus. While the future is never certain, here are some educated guesses - some more obvious than others:

• Transitioning to working from home has been messy, but people are getting used to it. Extroverts seem to be missing the office more than introverts. Interestingly, I heard on the grapevine about a company asking their staff for their sentiments, and they reported a unanimously high comfort level with the new arrangements and broad improvement in mental health. In some cases, productivity has gone up. So long as the safety of working from home outweighs the risks, any return to offices is likely to be piecemeal - and in some cases won’t happen at all. Flexible working will become much more commonplace. It’ll take a while (maybe 2022?) before we reach a new post-lockdown equilibrium.
• In the meantime, we can anticipate more hotspots and lockdowns, even in Australia where things are better than overseas.
• While current signs of a vaccine are promising, this will take time to roll out and the percentage effectiveness is not yet known - despite what people think or hope. This article in The Atlantic paints a pretty compelling picture of what we can expect over the next year. There may never be a complete cure and, in any event, we should be better prepared for future pandemics that send us all home again, whether this is a new virus or a mutation. Wearing face masks, using hand sanitiser and maintaining social distance will be common for a good while yet.
• A widespread recession is coming, fueled by businesses closing in the travel and hospitality space, commercial real estate, the entertainment sector, and others. Some businesses will have hoped to ride out the virus, counting on e.g. office workers returning to the City, but that won’t happen quickly enough for some. Jobseeker payments may soften the blow, but not eliminate it.
• A general reduction in the spend of disposable income (whether forced or voluntary) will have further downstream impacts on the economy. This will take years to play out, especially given the global nature of the pandemic. In the medium-to-long term, there will be an increased reluctance to invest in businesses that could be affected by future pandemics. Insurance will be difficult to come by, which may put people off starting businesses in that space altogether. People will need to acquire new skills, and this training will need to be done remotely.
• The way that companies communicate with their staff will continue to evolve. Town halls over Teams or Zoom have become the norm, but more work is needed to build effective smaller teams. We’re social animals at heart, and trust is built more quickly and effectively in person than through a screen. Collaboration is poorer as a result, and the impact isn’t yet fully known. However;
• Remote working will get easier, as familiarity with the tools improves, and meeting decorum becomes more standardised. The companies and organisations not already using asynchronous communication tools (such as Slack or Teams) to drive their teams forward will do so. The need to empower staff with greater autonomy will lead to a greater focus on better defined KPIs or OKRs, and the tools that support this.
  
  

So how will Covid-19 affect your digital transformation, when not only your staff but also your customers are spending more time at home, and less time with other people?

A lot will depend on the products or services being sold. As products are being designed, or re-designed, we would need to look at the new context to see what’s changed, to understand new pain points and opportunities, both for staff and customers. Assumptions have always been a challenge to overcome in the Customer Experience space, but even more so now given the circumstances have changed and will continue to do so in unpredictable ways.

The array of digital touchpoints can be explored in new ways. Ironically, people are less mobile than they were, meaning we need to rethink how mobility has changed for the new context (hint: still vital; just different). Call centres, of course, have gone through major disruption, with staff having to be relocated and challenges transitioning onto workstations that aren’t work-sanctioned (or which in some cases the staff member doesn’t even have). Most of these short term issues have been addressed of course, but call profiles will have been affected by Covid-19 (volume, duration and nature of call), and support for the staff will need to evolve as well.

Beyond that, there’s a lot of uncertainty around what’s changed and will continue to change. Now more than ever it’s vital to stay close to your staff and customers to understand how circumstances might be affecting them. There are significant challenges but also potentially significant opportunities coming to the surface.